Illegal Aliens, Crime, Damned Lies and Statistics

As Mark Twain wrote,

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force:

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

The chart at the top of this page is propagated all over the Internet by the media and progressives, apparently to “fact check” President Trump (for something he never said, by the way). The chart seems to have originated at this link and is based upon data from a study published by the Cato Institute.

(It occurs to me that the title of the chart could as easily read, “Legal immigrants commit less crime than illegal aliens,” but I digress.)

Those opposed to a “wall” (a material barrier, i.e.) on our southern border love to cite what they call this scientific study to give the false impression that illegal aliens are, in so many words, better people than “native born” Americans.

How many times have you heard that lately?

Check out the actual study that is being erroneously cited as proof that U.S. citizens are more likely than illegal aliens to commit crimes (putting aside the obvious fact that when one is an illegal alien, one has already committed a crime. Illegal aliens are criminals in 100% of cases.)

In order to thoroughly refute this so-called “fact” (that illegal aliens are less likely than U.S. born citizens to commit crimes) might take as long as it took the author to write the study (this single study upon which progressives hang their hats). Lately, I don’t have that much time, nor the inclination, to argue with obviously biased sources of fake news. Suffice it to say that right off the bat one can easily point to numerous problems with this rather insulting allegation about “native born” citizens.

The study analysed data from just one state--Texas. However, quite erroneously, progressives and the media have generalized this one study, about people in one state, to the entire nation!

This is a fundamental error cautioned about in Research 101.

Texas is not a representative population. Therefore, statistics concerning the population of Texas cannot be extrapolated to the entire population of this country.

Texas is not a typical state when it comes to demographics. The resident population of Texas is nearly 40% Hispanic.

How different from each other, as populations go, are U.S.-born Hispanics in Texas versus illegal alien Hispanics in Texas? How similar are they?

How different are people in Texas–whether citizens, legal immigrants, or illegal aliens–from the populations of all the other states?

What about environmental differences, such as culture, religion, or rural versus urban populations? See the potential problem?

How many of the native-born Texans to whom illegal aliens are being compared are not typical U.S. citizens but are actually the children of illegal aliens, in other words birthright citizens, who would not have even been considered citizens prior to the 1960s? What’s the total population of birthright citizens in Texas? Wouldn’t that be important to know?

How scientifically accurate is it to generalize statistics about birthright citizens in Texas to the rest of the citizens of this country, especially those who are not the children of illegal aliens but are natural born citizens–the children of U.S. citizens?

What are the ages of the criminals being categorized here? Are birthright citizens who may be disproportionately males aged 15 to 25 being compared to illegal aliens who happen to be disproportionately elderly, female, and/or under age 15? Were age and sex controlled for?

Texas has a “foreign-born” population of nearly 17%. This also is not typical of other states in the Union.

The study claims that the illegal alien population of Texas in 2015 was 6.4% of the total population, also not typical of the nation.

Remember that the census doesn’t ask citizenship anymore. In fact, progressives are currently suing to prevent the Trump administration from asking about citizenship on the next census. Few government agencies ask about citizenship status–not motor vehicle departments, prisons, schools, or social service agencies. Nobody really knows for certain how many illegal aliens reside in Texas, or in the entire nation for that matter.

Any study purporting to give a rate of criminality based upon a percentage of the total illegal alien population of Texas (or any other state) is not, and cannot be, reliable.

How do researchers come up with the rate of any variable per illegal alien population? They make it up! They use estimates of the illegal alien population that are supposedly arrived at by using valid scientific methods. (In the case of the Cato study, by using self-report surveys!)

Get that number wrong and the whole bogus allegation that U.S. citizens are more prone to criminality than illegal aliens goes out the window.

Consider: Remember that the study reported that the illegal alien population of Texas in 2015 was 6.4% of the entire population. However, a very quick search turned up a Texas newspaper article that reported the illegal alien population of Texas in 2015 as 1.5 million people. The total population of Texas in 2015 was 27,695,284, according to a Texas government chart. This means that according to these figures, the illegal alien population of Texas in 2015 was closer to 5.4% of the total population.

Does it promote the popular progressive narrative if one overestimates the illegal alien population of Texas by adding more than a quarter million illegal aliens, making the rate of criminality appear lower?

The study looked at arrests and convictions. When illegal aliens commit crimes in Texas, are they always arrested and always held for adjudication of their crime(s) or are they sometimes simply deported? Just a thought.

As noted by the author of the study, it relies upon conviction and arrest statistics from the state of Texas that represent events, not the number of individual perpetrators. Doesn’t this study then compare apples to oranges? How does one separate crimes from individuals to come up with a rate per population?

Suppose a native citizen is convicted of three crimes but an illegal alien of one crime–doesn’t that skew the rate per population? I’m just askin’.

Could it be possible that illegal aliens are prosecuted and convicted of their most egregious crime and then promptly deported, whereas native citizens are prosecuted for every crime they commit?

Could there be a bias against native born citizens in Texas with regard to prosecution rates? Should this be investigated, one wonders?

Could it be that state crime statistics are incorrect given that illegal aliens often used forged documents and have numerous aliases that can make them appear (on paper) to be native citizens or legal immigrants? How did the researcher control for that possibility?

When “surveyed,” do illegal aliens self-report their illegal status? Let’s get real here.

Could it be that illegal aliens are arrested at lower rates than U.S. citizens because the illegal alien population, among whom illegal alien criminals live, are sympathetic and therefore do not report crimes committed by fellow illegal aliens to avoid their deportation? Just another thought.

Even I know that you have to control for all the variables and sort out things like correlation without causation and watch for things like “assuming that the data represents what you think it does.”

Even I know that you cannot generalize to the entire country statistics derived from one state with a very unique population, especially when it comes to illegal immigration.

Using incorrect statistics, inappropriate generalizations, and deliberately out-of-context soundbites is okay with the media so long as it promotes the progressive narrative.

We hear this everywhere–the INSULTING allegation that illegal aliens are less violent, less criminal, than U.S. citizens. This despite the fact that non-citizens and illegal aliens are disproportionately represented among the incarcerated in federal prisons.

So we know it’s a lie to state that illegal aliens commit “less crime than native-born citizens.” However, even if it were true, does this mean that it’s fine to allow people (nonviolent or not) to break illegally into our country?

Would progressives prefer a trade? We could do that, actually.

Since their argument is that U.S. citizens are more likely to be criminals than illegal aliens, then let’s just trade our native-born convicted criminals for the proven non-criminal, nonviolent, productive citizens of the foreign countries that contribute to us the greatest number of illegal aliens.

How would that plan work for progressives?

h/t Zenway

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182 responses to “Illegal Aliens, Crime, Damned Lies and Statistics

  1. Great comment!!!

    {I love it when a spoiled brat gets grounded by her Daddy for not staying home and doing her homework. Daddy took away the keys to the Air Force Boeing jet. She and her classmates were all set for a great joyride. Maybe she will hold her breath until she turns blue and passes out to show how furious she is with Daddy. I can see her yelling, “I hate you. I hate you. I hate you.}

  2. 🤣🤣
    meltdown!!!!!!

  3. https://www.france24.com/en/20190118-new-migrant-caravan-enters-mexico-legally-or-not ….. CARE NOT about RULES of LAW!!! NEVER DID! ha’
    & these R the democrats DARLINGS ??? O’ poor souls? NOT TRUE!

  4. YEP ! ..U ROCK it MAN !!! …LOVE your BRAIN …WTP GET WHY yep!
    PELOSI U R A F-in’ FIG ! DRIED UP & OVER COOKED! SURRENDER
    STAY HOME & LOOK @ YOUR BEAUTIFUL .. FENCES ..OK???
    https://www.wnd.com/2019/01/trump-admin-expands-grounding-of-government-jets/
    U have FLOWN WAY 2 MUCH already & FILLED “OUR” PLANE with
    the “BEST” BOOZE .WTP’S $$ MONEY could BUY! I REMEMBER IT

  5. LAT-in-OS’ … LOVIN’ on TRUMP …4 all he is RIGHTING!!! MAGA’
    https://www.wnd.com/2019/01/poll-amid-wall-fight-latinos-love-trump/

    ~ So do most Americans. Just cut through the noise and the polls that lie.
    ~ Nancy will love this! (*S*)
    ~What I don’t understand is why President Trump didn’t have this fight over funding for the border wall 1 year ago when there was a Republican majority in both chambers. It would have been much easier to win at that point. We would be well into the wall-building effort by this point in time. Hmmm

    WHY??? SO WTP ….can GUT the SWAMP ….OUT in the OPEN !!!
    It’s not really that hard 2 SEE ….PELOSI …is the LOSER … FOOLISH
    GANG ….is just a CREW of EMPTY …LOSERS wanting USA 2 SINK!
    WTP …Will never ever SINK 2 the LEVEL of DESTROYER – TRASH
    NOPE they STAY “LOW” .. 4 that is all they KNOW … Zero BRAINS!

  6. FACT SHEET …May 2018
    State Facts About Abortion: Massachusetts
    NATIONAL BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT
    Each year, a broad cross section of U.S. women obtain abortions.
    As of 2014, ….. some
    60% of women having abortions were in their 20s;
    59% had one or more children; 86% were unmarried;
    75% were economically disadvantaged;
    62% a religious affiliation.[1] No racial or ethnic group made up a majority:
    39% of women obtaining abortions were white,
    28% were black,
    25% were Hispanic
    9% were of other racial or ethnic backgrounds.[1]

    Since recognizing a
    woman’s constitutional right to abortion in 1973 in Roe v. Wade,
    the U.S. Supreme Court has in subsequent decisions reaffirmed that right. The Court has held that a state cannot ban abortion before viability (the point at which a fetus can survive outside the uterus), and that any restriction on abortion after viability must contain exceptions to protect the life and health of the woman. Furthermore, any previability abortion restriction cannot create an “undue burden” on a woman seeking an abortion.

    This “undue burden” standard was established in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 and clarified in the 2016 decision in Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt.

    Since 2010, the U.S. abortion landscape has grown increasingly restrictive as more states become hostile to abortion rights.
    Between 2010 and 2016, states enacted 338 new abortion restrictions,
    which account for nearly 30% of the 1,142 abortion restrictions enacted by states since the 1973 … Supreme Court decision in …. Roe v. Wade.

    • iow, proportionately more “babies of color” were aborted than “babies of white color” and yet the “communities of color” persist in supporting abortion-loving DemoncRATS.

  7. HELLO … ??? CNN & MSNBC …2 BUSY watching PORN??? ^^^^

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/01/100000-supporters-turn-out-for-annual-march-for-life-usa-today-reports-more-than-a-thousand-cnn-and-msnbc-completely-ignore/

    The theme of this year’s march is “pro-life is pro-science.”
    The event is being headlined by Daily Wire founder Ben Shapiro.

    The March for Life in Washington, D.C., has been held on or near the anniversary of Roe v. Wade every year since 1973 and is the largest
    pro-life event in the World.

    VOTER POLL: Does Trump have your vote in 2020? YEP YEP YEP !!!

    Vice President Pence was not announced as a speaker, but showed up
    in the afternoon.

    • That’s a very interesting thing, isn’t it? Remember how Comey and the rest would never speak to refute KNOWN lies in the media, even if it besmirched the DOJ/FBI somehow, if only for leaking? He claimed he couldn’t comment one way or the other about an investigation. Now how is it that Mueller can? Are the ethics Comey refers to suddenly somehow moot? Or is this the effect of a new sheriff in town? iow, the acting AG? Is Mueller finally being held to account and standards? Or is he, like Mark Levin suggests, just trying to avoid a leak investigation?

      • ‘K’ommunist Harris PRE- FERS .. I – ALIENS …how many may she SLEPT WITH …. JUST like married …WILLIE BROWN
        https://www.wnd.com/2019/01/disabled-vet-charges-kamala-harris-prefers-illegal-aliens/

        If only someone had enforced the E-verify law, this ID theft could have been avoided. The new governor of California has declared that California is a sanctuary state. Well this state has already been lost. What is left in America for Americans anything??????Colorado is following California. Ann Coulter wrote a book entitled “ADIOS AMERICA”. It is becoming a reality

        We’re already lost. In the end, it’s all about the corrupt sheeple.
        Let us migrate all the corrupt sheeple (the democRATS), illegals,the assylum seekers & the Caravan into the Sanctuary state of Mexifornia. Let Governor Newsome take care of them. Very big relief for the President.

        Sounds like a good idea but your day dreaming. Not going to happen.
        This woman is the “Face” of the Democrat Party.
        In other words, just another face of Satan himself.
        Harris is human filth who prefers illegal alien filth. No surprise.

        I believe the disabled veteran. Kamala Harris is a Left Winger who put everyone in front …. of US citizens.

        ‘K’ommunist Harris fits so well into ‘contemporary demon-crat’ Political Power Crazy Commies (PPCC) in America’s unfortunate current state.

        https://amgreatness.com/2018/04/21/poontronage-when-kamala-met-willie/
        O’ ……so interesting ….shiT!!! ….really harris?

        • O’ …does KAMMY ROCK IT??? O’ yeah …sluts come 2 mind???
          http://www.sfweekly.com/news/kamalas-karma/ ….^^^^^^

          Harris met Brown in 1994 when he was speaker of the state Assembly. She was 29, he was 60. Their May/December affair was the talk of the town during the year before Brown’s successful 1995 bid to become mayor. But shortly after he was inaugurated, Harris Dumped Brown,
          a >>> notorious womanizer. <<<< [page] O' such a BROWN~ STUD

          Aside from handing her an expensive BMW, Brown appointed her to 2 patronage positions in state government that paid handsomely — more than $400,000 over 5 years. In 1994, she took a 6-month leave of absence from her Alameda County job to join the Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board. Brown then appointed HER to the California Medical Assistance Commission, where she served until 1998, attending JUST …
          2 meetings ….. a month
          for a $99,000 annual salary. …. ??? a REAL hard working CHICK?

  8. ~ E. Pluribus Unum
    I understand there were 93 — that’s NINETY-THREE — people going &
    ONLY …7 were Legislators. ??? Heard that included Pelosi’s children & grandchildren.

    She’s whining that Trump jeopardized her security by exposing the trip. No; she’s mad because Trump let the SUN-shine in so that Americans understood how she Abuses power and wastes taxpayers’ money. So within the last month she’s partied in Hawaii, partied in Puerto Rico, & God-only-knows-where she was planning to party this trip. Afghanistan? Brussels? Doubtful — but that’s her story & she’s sticking with it.

    PLUS HER PAY CHECK ….KEEPS ROLLING IN ? not nice NANCY!
    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3721094/posts

    • Wow. Are you kidding me? 93 people and only 7 legislators? That may be a record surpassing even Moo’s junkets. And on our dime.

  9. so go get loaded …you’ll feel like your FLYING NANC’ .. U CON ARTIST
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/trump_grounds_pelosi_junket.html

  10. NO STAND UP 2 the NEW COMMENT tossers … I HEAR WHAT U SAID
    …. LISTEN 2 them SPIN …. EACH & EVERY WORD!!! BS 2 U <<<
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/antiisrael_fanatic_ilhan_omar_appointed_by_pelosi_to_the_house_foreign_affairs_committee.html

  11. HEAR…the BUZZ?…NOPE NOT ME! ….BUTT’ BUZZ DID?
    STRAIGHT from the HORSE’s M O U T H ! .. is there NO SHAME
    http://www.michellesmirror.com/2019/01/the-truth-according-to-your.html#.XEOjb1xKiUk

  12. ~ Fifi CoolBrew •

    Any way to get R I D …. of Buzz Feed? They are RE -peat OFF-enders.

    YEP FEED US a BUnCH of DUNG … NASTY .. LIE in WTP’S FACE?

  13. Trump proposal ….. ???

    3 years extension of DACA

    3 year extension of TPS for aliens whose protections are facing expiration

    $800M: Humanitarian assistance

    $805M: Drug detection technology

    2,750 border agents & law enforcement professionals

    75 immigration judge teams

    $5.7B: Barrier

  14. WHAT a SPECIAL GIFT .. 2 WTP… & MORE ~ BE~BEST ~ ALWAYS

  15. BUZZ~BLEED! …..TRUTH or DARE ?

  16. JUST 200 ? I thought it was WAY MO’ … CNN & MSNBC So “LOW”

    I’d ….say they GOT …. ” Sch-Long-ed ” …BIG TIME!!!

    https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/18/cnn-msnbc-impeach-trump-buzzfeed-mueller/

    • Imagine lying sick in a hospital bed and that guy comes up and says, “Hi, I’m Nathan. I’ll be your nurse today.”

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